Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
